The Big Idea: Everything Changes
Things Wear Out
Like ice melting or a car rusting, investments lose value over time. Technology makes this happen faster than ever.
Money Flows to Energy
Capital moves toward things that process the most activity—like AI data centers, power plants, and digital infrastructure.
Own the Rails, Not Just the Train
We focus on infrastructure that others depend on—the platforms, protocols, and power systems that enable everything else.
Why This Matters For Your Money
Traditional investing often ignores how fast things become outdated. A company that was cutting-edge 10 years ago might be irrelevant today. We try to identify which investments will still matter in 10-20 years—and which ones are already starting to "rust." This isn't about chasing the latest trend. It's about understanding where the world is headed and positioning accordingly.
How We Organize Investments
We think of investments in layers, from the most foundational (like energy and basic computing) to the most speculative (event-driven opportunities).
How Physics Helps Us Invest
Ideas borrowed from science that help explain why some investments thrive while others fade away
Markets don't give you something for nothing—you need real information to make money.
Spreading your investments across truly different things is better than just avoiding similar ones.
Some investments naturally lose value over time as newer technology replaces them.
Money tends to flow toward whatever processes the most energy and information—like AI data centers.
New technology goes through predictable stages: first we build it, then everyone uses it.
Being too sure of yourself in uncertain markets is dangerous—stay humble about what you don't know.
How AI Helps Us Make Better Decisions
Using smart software to process more information and avoid common mistakes
AI works better when it follows rules from physics instead of just finding patterns in past data.
Using uncertainty measurements helps avoid false signals—fewer bad trades, better results.
When AI is unsure about something, we can measure that uncertainty and be more careful.
AI is speeding up how fast old technology becomes outdated—change happens faster now.
Ways of Thinking About Decisions
Mental models that help us make better choices under uncertainty
Update your beliefs based on new evidence—don't stubbornly stick to old assumptions.
The old ways of thinking about the world are changing—new ideas flow in new directions.
Measuring uncertainty helps build portfolios that perform better in unpredictable markets.
Want to Learn More?
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