Current Market Regime
LoadingPrecious Metals Signal
Au
Gold / Silver / Precious Metals
neutral
30Y Bond Futures (ZB)
N/A
Bullish Threshold
< 113.00
Trigger
Inactive
Regime Detection Signals
Credit Stress Indicators
normalCredit indicators normal
Fed Liquidity Flow
adequateLiquidity conditions adequate
7-Layer Equity Model
Macro Indicators
IndicatorValueSignal
Dollar Index (DXY)108.00
bearish
VIX (Volatility)18.00
neutral
Treasury Yield Curve
normal2Y
Treasury
N/A
5Y
Treasury
N/A
10Y
Treasury
N/A
30Y
Treasury
N/A
Energy & Commodities
NG
Natural Gas
N/A
Historical Context & Analogs
| Era | Period | Regime | SPX | Gold | Lesson |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Great Depression | 1929-1942 | DEFLATION | -86% peak to trough | +69% (dollar devalued) | Cash and gold preserved purchasing power; equities destroyed wealth |
| Stagflation | 1968-1980 | HARD ASSET | +10% nominal over decade | +2300% | Nominal sideways can mean catastrophic real losses; gold massively outperforms |
| Lost Decade | 2000-2011 | HARD ASSET | -9% over decade | +650% | Multiple crashes possible; gold provided insurance and growth |
| Growth Dominance | 2011-2024 | GROWTH | +400%+ | -30% then +150% | When ratio is low, equities dominate; don't fight the trend |